Working Papers

The Distributional Consequences of Large Devaluations, joint with Javier Cravino
Latest Version (November, 2016)
R&R, American Economic Review
RSIE Discussion Paper 648
UBS Center Working Paper 15
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org
Press: Slon.ru (February 12, 2016, in Russian, subscription required)

The Micro Origins of International Business Cycle Comovement, joint with Julian di Giovanni and Isabelle Mejean
Latest Version (February, 2017)
R&R, American Economic Review
NBER Working Paper 21885
CEPR Discussion Paper 11036
RSIE Discussion Paper 649
AER P&P companion paper: "Large Firms and International Business Cycle Comovement" (January, 2017)
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org

TFP, News, and "Sentiments:" The International Transmission of Business Cycles, joint with Nitya Pandalai-Nayar
Latest Version (October, 2016)
NBER Working Paper 21010 (March, 2015)
RSIE Discussion Paper 640 (February, 2015)

International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages, joint with Raphael Auer and Philip Saure
Latest Version (January, 2017)
SNB Working Paper 2017-03
NBER Working Paper 23246
CEPR Discussion Paper 11906
RSIE Discussion Paper 655

Publications

Peer-Reviewed Journals

Multinational Firms and International Business Cycle Transmission, joint with Javier Cravino
Forthcoming, Quarterly Journal of Economics.
Final Working Paper Version Online Appendix (August, 2016)
NBER Working Paper 22498
CEPR Discussion Paper 11454
RSIE Discussion Paper 643 (June, 2015)
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org

Trade Policy and Redistribution when Preferences are Non-Homothetic, joint with Quy-Toan Do
Forthcoming, Economics Letters.
Final Working Paper Version (March, 2017)
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8005
NBER Working Paper 23237
CEPR Discussion Paper 11890
RSIE Discussion Paper 656

The Growth of Multinational Firms in the Great Recession, joint with Vanessa Alviarez and Javier Cravino
Journal of Monetary Economics, 85 (January 2017), 50-64 (Carnegie-Rochester-NYU Series on Public Policy).
Final Working Paper Version (August, 2016)
CEPR Discussion Paper 11637
RSIE Discussion Paper 654

The Evolution of Comparative Advantage: Measurement and Welfare Implications, joint with Jing Zhang
Journal of Monetary Economics, 78 (April 2016), 96-111.
Final Working Paper Version (including supplementary online appendix) (January, 2016)
UBS Center Working Paper 11 (April, 2015)
NBER Working Paper 16806 (February, 2011)
RSIE Discussion Paper 610 (September, 2010)

Comparative Advantage, International Trade, and Fertility, joint with Quy-Toan Do and Claudio Raddatz
Journal of Development Economics, 119 (March 2016), 48-66.
Final Working Paper Version (October, 2015)
NBER Working Paper 21677
CEPR Discussion Paper 10903
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6930 (June, 2014)
RSIE Discussion Paper 624 (February, 2012)
A non-technical summary: Let's Talk Development Blog

A Global View of Cross-Border Migration, joint with Julian di Giovanni and Francesc Ortega
Journal of the European Economic Association, 13:1 (February 2015), 168-202 [Editor's choice].
Final Working Paper Version (including supplementary online appendix) (March, 2014)
NBER Working Paper 20002
CEPR Discussion Paper 9683
RSIE Discussion Paper 627 (May, 2012)
CReAM Discussion Paper 1218 (May, 2012)
IZA Discussion Paper 6584 (May, 2012)
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org
Press: The New York Times (September 15, 2015)

Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations, joint with Julian di Giovanni and Isabelle Mejean
Econometrica, 82:4 (July 2014), 1303-1340.
Final Working Paper Version (including supplementary online appendix) (April, 2014)
NBER Working Paper 20061
RSIE Discussion Paper 630 (August, 2012)
CEPR Discussion Paper 9168 (October, 2012)
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org

The Global Welfare Impact of China: Trade Integration and Technological Change, joint with Julian di Giovanni and Jing Zhang
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 6:3 (July 2014), 153-183.
Final Working Paper Version (including supplementary online appendix) (May, 2013)
CEPR Discussion Paper 9919
IMF Working Paper 12/79 (February, 2012)
RSIE Discussion Paper 625 (February, 2012)
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org

Ricardian Productivity Differences and the Gains from Trade, joint with Jing Zhang
European Economic Review, 65 (January 2014), 45-65.
Final Working Paper Version (October, 2013)
NBER Working Paper 19641
RSIE Discussion Paper 633 (December, 2012)

Comparative Advantage, Complexity, and Volatility, joint with Pravin Krishna
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 94 (October 2013), 314-329.
Final Working Paper Version (September, 2012)
RSIE Discussion Paper 632
NBER Working Paper 14965 (May, 2009)

International Trade and Institutional Change
Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 29:5 (October 2013), 1145-1181.
Final Working Paper Version (December, 2011)
NBER Working Paper 17675
RSIE Discussion Paper 579 (September, 2008)

The Global Labor Market Impact of Emerging Giants: a Quantitative Assessment, joint with Jing Zhang
IMF Economic Review, 61:3 (August 2013), 479-519.
Final Working Paper Version (June, 2013)
RSIE Discussion Paper 637

Firm Entry, Trade, and Welfare in Zipf's World, joint with Julian di Giovanni
Journal of International Economics, 89:2 (March 2013), 283-296.
Final Working Paper Version (June, 2012)
NBER Working Paper 16313 (a longer version, August 2010)
RSIE Discussion Paper 591 (September, 2009)

Country Size, International Trade, and Aggregate Fluctuations in Granular Economies, joint with Julian di Giovanni
Journal of Political Economy, 120:6 (December 2012), 1083-1132.
Final Working Paper Version Supplementary Online Appendix (October, 2012)
NBER Working Paper 17335 (August, 2011)
RSIE Discussion Paper 585 (February, 2009)
Press: The Economist (June 22, 2013)

Comparative Advantage and the Welfare Impact of European Integration, joint with Jing Zhang
Economic Policy, 27:72 (October 2012), 567-602.
Final Working Paper Version (March, 2012)
NBER Working Paper 18061
RSIE Discussion Paper 626

Power Laws in Firm Size and Openness to Trade: Measurement and Implications, joint with Julian di Giovanni and Romain Ranciere
Journal of International Economics, 85:1 (September 2011), 42-52.
Final Working Paper Version (May, 2011)
RSIE Discussion Paper 598 (March, 2010)
CEPR Discussion Paper 7773 (March, 2010)

The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun, joint with Logan Lewis and Linda Tesar
IMF Economic Review, 58:2 (December 2010), 214-253.
Final Working Paper Version (May, 2010, also NBER Working Paper 16006)
RSIE Discussion Paper 592 (October, 2009)
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org EBook chapter

Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement, joint with Julian di Giovanni
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2:2 (April 2010), 95-124.
Final Working Paper Version (including supplementary online appendix) (July, 2009)
RSIE Discussion Paper 580 (September, 2008)
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org

Trade Openness and Volatility, joint with Julian di Giovanni
Review of Economics and Statistics, 91:3 (August 2009), 558-585.
Final Working Paper Version (November, 2007)
Centro Luca d'Agliano Development Studies Working Paper 219 (July, 2006)

Trade, Inequality, and the Political Economy of Institutions, joint with Quy-Toan Do
Journal of Economic Theory, 144:4 (July 2009), 1489-1520.
Final Working Paper Version (November, 2008)
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3836 (February, 2006)
IMF Working Paper 06/56 (February, 2006)

Growth and Risk at the Industry Level: the Real Effects of Financial Liberalization, joint with Romain Ranciere and Mathias Thoenig
Journal of Development Economics, 89:2 (July 2009), 210-222.
Final Working Paper Version Supplementary Online Appendix (May, 2008)
CEPR Discussion Paper 6715 (February, 2008)

Comparative Advantage, Demand for External Finance, and Financial Development, joint with Quy-Toan Do
Journal of Financial Economics, 86:3 (December 2007), 796-834.
Final Working Paper Version (November, 2006)
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3889 (April, 2006)
[Note: A much earlier version of this paper was issued under the title “Trade and Financial Development,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3347 (June 2004)]

Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Protect from Sudden Stops? joint with Paolo Mauro
World Bank Economic Review, 21:3 (September 2007), 389-411.
Final Working Paper Version (March, 2007)
IMF Working Paper 06/202 (September, 2006)

Institutional Quality and International Trade
Review of Economic Studies, 74:3 (July 2007), 791-819.
Final Working Paper Version (September, 2006)
IMF Working Paper 04/231 (November, 2004)

Financial Liberalization and Consumption Volatility in Developing Countries
IMF Staff Papers, 52:2 (September 2005), 237-259.

Other Research Publications

External Rebalancing, Structural Adjustment, and Real Exchange Rates in Developing Asia, joint with Jing Zhang
in Benno Ferrarini and David Hummels, eds, Asia and Global Production Networks -- Implications for Trade, Incomes and Economic Vulnerability, Asian Development Bank and Edgar Elgar Publishing, 2014, 215-248.
Final Working Paper Version (September 2013)

Trade Insulation as Social Protection, joint with Quy-Toan Do and Martin Ravallion
in Jean-Paul Chavas, David Hummels, and Brian Wright, eds, The Economics of Food Price Volatility, NBER and University of Chicago Press, 2014, 345-366.
Final Working Paper Version (May 2013, also World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6448)

The Risk Content of Exports: A Portfolio View of International Trade, joint with Julian di Giovanni
NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 8:1 (May 2012), 97-151.
Final Working Paper Version (October, 2008)
RSIE Discussion Paper 581
NBER Working Paper 16005

The Role of Trade Finance in the U.S. Trade Collapse: a Skeptic's View, joint with Logan Lewis and Linda Tesar
in Jean-Pierre Chauffour and Mariem Malouche, eds, Trade Finance During the Great Trade Collapse, Washington, DC: The World Bank, 2011, 133-147.
Final Working Paper Version (August 2010, also RSIE Discussion Paper 616)

The "Collapse in Quality" Hypothesis, joint with Logan Lewis and Linda Tesar
American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 101:3 (May 2011), 293-297.
Final Working Paper Version (including supplementary online appendix) (March 2011)