Working Papers

The Granular Origins of Inflation, joint with Santiago Alvarez-Blaser, Raphael Auer, and Sarah Lein
Latest Version (March, 2024)

Superstars or Supervillains? Large Firms in the South Korean Growth Miracle, joint with Jaedo Choi, Dimitrije Ruzic, and Younghun Shim
Latest Version (February, 2024)

The Long-Term Effects of Industrial Policy, joint with Jaedo Choi
Latest Version (August, 2023)
NBER Working Paper 29263 | CEPR Discussion Paper 16534
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org, NBER Digest
Press: Economic Report of the President 2024 (p. 233)

Noisy Global Value Chains, joint with Ha Bui, Zhen Huo and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar
Latest Version (November, 2023)
NBER Working Paper 30033 | CEPR Discussion Paper 17296

Globalization, Structural Change and International Comovement, joint with Barthelemy Bonadio, Zhen Huo and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar
Latest Version (June, 2023)
NBER Working Paper 31358 | CEPR Discussion Paper 18250


Selected Journal Publications

International Comovement in the Global Production Network, joint with Zhen Huo and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar
Forthcoming, Review of Economic Studies
Final Working Paper Version (December, 2023), Replication materials
NBER Working Paper 25978 | CEPR Discussion Paper 13796 | RSIE Discussion Paper 669
Supersedes "The Global Business Cycle: Measurement and Transmission"
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org

Specialization, Market Access, and Real Income, joint with Dominick Bartelme and Ting Lan
Forthcoming, Journal of International Economics
Final Working Paper Version (December, 2023), Replication materials
NBER Working Paper 28274 | CEPR Discussion Paper 15604 | RSIE Discussion Paper 679

Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations, joint with Julian di Giovanni and Isabelle Mejean
Journal of Political Economy 132:2 (February 2024), 391-433.
Final Working Paper Version (September, 2022), Replication materials
NBER Working Paper 28123 | CEPR Discussion Paper 15458 | RSIE Discussion Paper 678
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org

Growth and Risk: A View from International Trade, joint with Pravin Krishna, Lin Ma, and William Maloney
Journal of International Economics, 142 (May 2023), 103755.
Final Working Paper Version (January, 2023), Replication materials, Establishment dates of stock markets
NBER Working Paper 30915 | CEPR Discussion Paper 17877 | RSIE Discussion Paper 687 | World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9296 (June, 2020)

The Long and Short (Run) of Trade Elasticities, joint with Christoph E. Boehm and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar
American Economic Review, 113:4 (April 2023), 861-905 [Lead article].
Final Working Paper Version (October, 2022), Replication materials
NBER Working Paper 27064 | CEPR Discussion Paper 14645 | RSIE Discussion Paper 680

Population Aging and Structural Transformation, joint with Javier Cravino and Marco Rojas
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 14:4 (October 2022), 479-498.
Final Working Paper Version (May, 2021), Replication materials
NBER Working Paper 26327 | CEPR Discussion Paper 14026 | RSIE Discussion Paper 674 (September, 2019)

Aggregate Fluctuations in Adaptive Production Networks, joint with Michael D. Koenig, Tim Rogers and Fabrizio Zilibotti
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119:38 (September 2022), e2203730119.
Published Version, Replication materials

The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies, joint with Lin Ma, Gil Shapira, Damien de Walque, Quy-Toan Do, and Jed Friedman
International Economic Review, 63:3 (August 2022), 1427-1468.
Final Working Paper Version (January, 2022), Replication materials
NBER Working Paper 28925 | CEPR Discussion Paper 16227 | World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9677
A non-technical summary: Let's Talk Development Blog, VoxEU.org, IGC Ideas for India
Press: The Economist, Der Spiegel (in German)

Global Supply Chains in the Pandemic, joint with Barthelemy Bonadio, Zhen Huo and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar
Journal of International Economics, 133 (November 2021), 103534.
Final Working Paper Version Online Appendix (August, 2021), Replication materials
NBER Working Paper 27224 | CEPR Discussion Paper 14766 | RSIE Discussion Paper 683
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org
Press: The Economist, Economic Report of the President 2022 (p. 208), Economic Report of the President 2023 (p. 111), Economic Report of the President 2024 (p. 198)

Price Stickiness Along the Income Distribution and the Effects of Monetary Policy, joint with Javier Cravino and Ting Lan
Journal of Monetary Economics, 110 (April 2020), 19-32.
Final Working Paper Version (October, 2018)
NBER Working Paper 24654 (May, 2018) | CEPR Discussion Paper 12967 (June, 2018) | RSIE Discussion Paper 661 (April, 2018)
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org

TFP, News, and "Sentiments:" The International Transmission of Business Cycles, joint with Nitya Pandalai-Nayar
Journal of the European Economic Association, 18:1 (February 2020), 302-341.
Final Working Paper Version (August, 2018), Replication materials
NBER Working Paper 21010 (March, 2015) | RSIE Discussion Paper 640 (February, 2015)
Press: Bloomberg.com

International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages, joint with Raphael Auer and Philip Saure
Review of Economics and Statistics, 101:3 (July 2019), 507-521.
Final Working Paper Version (February, 2018), Replication materials
SNB Working Paper 2017-03 | NBER Working Paper 23246 | CEPR Discussion Paper 11906 | RSIE Discussion Paper 655 | BIS Working Paper 623
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org
Press: The Economist

The Micro Origins of International Business Cycle Comovement, joint with Julian di Giovanni and Isabelle Mejean
American Economic Review, 108:1 (January 2018), 82-108.
Final Working Paper Version (including supplementary online appendix) (February, 2017), Replication materials
NBER Working Paper 21885 | CEPR Discussion Paper 11036 | RSIE Discussion Paper 649
AER P&P companion paper: "Large Firms and International Business Cycle Comovement" (May, 2017)
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org

The Distributional Consequences of Large Devaluations, joint with Javier Cravino
American Economic Review, 107:11 (November 2017), 3477-3509.
Final Working Paper Version (including supplementary online appendix) (November, 2016), Replication materials
NBER Working Paper 23409 | CEPR Discussion Paper 12035 | RSIE Discussion Paper 648 | UBS Center Working Paper 15
AEA P&P companion paper: "The Geographic Spread of a Large Devaluation" (May, 2018)
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org
Press: Republic.ru (in Russian, subscription required)

Multinational Firms and International Business Cycle Transmission, joint with Javier Cravino
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132:2 (May 2017), 921-962.
Final Working Paper Version Online Appendix (August, 2016)
NBER Working Paper 22498 | CEPR Discussion Paper 11454 | RSIE Discussion Paper 643 (June, 2015)
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org

The Evolution of Comparative Advantage: Measurement and Welfare Implications, joint with Jing Zhang
Journal of Monetary Economics, 78 (April 2016), 96-111.
Final Working Paper Version (including supplementary online appendix) (January, 2016)
UBS Center Working Paper 11 (April, 2015) | NBER Working Paper 16806 (February, 2011) | RSIE Discussion Paper 610 (September, 2010)

Comparative Advantage, International Trade, and Fertility, joint with Quy-Toan Do and Claudio Raddatz
Journal of Development Economics, 119 (March 2016), 48-66.
Final Working Paper Version (October, 2015), Replication materials, Data
NBER Working Paper 21677 | CEPR Discussion Paper 10903 | World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6930 (June, 2014) | RSIE Discussion Paper 624 (February, 2012)
A non-technical summary: Let's Talk Development Blog

A Global View of Cross-Border Migration, joint with Julian di Giovanni and Francesc Ortega
Journal of the European Economic Association, 13:1 (February 2015), 168-202 [Editor's choice].
Final Working Paper Version (including supplementary online appendix) (March, 2014), Replication materials
NBER Working Paper 20002 | CEPR Discussion Paper 9683 | RSIE Discussion Paper 627 (May, 2012) | CReAM Discussion Paper 1218 (May, 2012) | IZA Discussion Paper 6584 (May, 2012)
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org
Press: The New York Times

Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations, joint with Julian di Giovanni and Isabelle Mejean
Econometrica, 82:4 (July 2014), 1303-1340.
Final Working Paper Version (including supplementary online appendix) (April, 2014), Replication materials
NBER Working Paper 20061 | RSIE Discussion Paper 630 (August, 2012) | CEPR Discussion Paper 9168 (October, 2012)
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org
Press: Les Echos (in French)

The Global Welfare Impact of China: Trade Integration and Technological Change, joint with Julian di Giovanni and Jing Zhang
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 6:3 (July 2014), 153-183.
Final Working Paper Version (including supplementary online appendix) (May, 2013), Replication materials
CEPR Discussion Paper 9919 | IMF Working Paper 12/79 (February, 2012) | RSIE Discussion Paper 625 (February, 2012)
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org

Ricardian Productivity Differences and the Gains from Trade, joint with Jing Zhang
European Economic Review, 65 (January 2014), 45-65.
Final Working Paper Version (October, 2013), Replication materials
NBER Working Paper 19641 | RSIE Discussion Paper 633 (December, 2012)

International Trade and Institutional Change
Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 29:5 (October 2013), 1145-1181.
Final Working Paper Version (December, 2011)
NBER Working Paper 17675 | RSIE Discussion Paper 579 (September, 2008)

Firm Entry, Trade, and Welfare in Zipf's World, joint with Julian di Giovanni
Journal of International Economics, 89:2 (March 2013), 283-296.
Final Working Paper Version (June, 2012)
NBER Working Paper 16313 (a longer version, August 2010) | RSIE Discussion Paper 591 (September, 2009)

Country Size, International Trade, and Aggregate Fluctuations in Granular Economies, joint with Julian di Giovanni
Journal of Political Economy, 120:6 (December 2012), 1083-1132.
Final Working Paper Version Supplementary Online Appendix (October, 2012), Replication materials
NBER Working Paper 17335 (August, 2011) | RSIE Discussion Paper 585 (February, 2009)
Press: The Economist

Power Laws in Firm Size and Openness to Trade: Measurement and Implications, joint with Julian di Giovanni and Romain Ranciere
Journal of International Economics, 85:1 (September 2011), 42-52.
Final Working Paper Version (May, 2011)
RSIE Discussion Paper 598 (March, 2010) | CEPR Discussion Paper 7773 (March, 2010)

Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement, joint with Julian di Giovanni
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2:2 (April 2010), 95-124.
Final Working Paper Version (including supplementary online appendix) (July, 2009), Replication materials
RSIE Discussion Paper 580 (September, 2008)
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org

Trade Openness and Volatility, joint with Julian di Giovanni
Review of Economics and Statistics, 91:3 (August 2009), 558-585.
Final Working Paper Version (November, 2007)
Centro Luca d'Agliano Development Studies Working Paper 219 (July, 2006)

Trade, Inequality, and the Political Economy of Institutions, joint with Quy-Toan Do
Journal of Economic Theory, 144:4 (July 2009), 1489-1520.
Final Working Paper Version (November, 2008)
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3836 (February, 2006) | IMF Working Paper 06/56 (February, 2006)

Comparative Advantage, Demand for External Finance, and Financial Development, joint with Quy-Toan Do
Journal of Financial Economics, 86:3 (December 2007), 796-834.
Final Working Paper Version (November, 2006)
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3889 (April, 2006)

Institutional Quality and International Trade
Review of Economic Studies, 74:3 (July 2007), 791-819.
Final Working Paper Version (September, 2006), Replication materials, Institutional intensity measures
IMF Working Paper 04/231 (November, 2004)

Other Research Publications

Book: Globalization: The Macroeconomic Implications of Microeconomic Heterogeneity

Utilization-Adjusted TFP Across Countries: Measurement and Implications for International Comovement, joint with Zhen Huo and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar
Journal of International Economics 146 (December 2023), 103753 (Special issue: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics)
Final Working Paper Version (October, 2020), Replication materials, Utilization-adjusted TFP Data
NBER Working Paper 26803 | CEPR Discussion Paper 14438

The Price Elasticity of African Elephant Poaching, joint with Quy-Toan Do, Lin Ma, Julian Blanc, Holly Dublin, and Tom Milliken
World Bank Economic Review 35:3 (October 2021), 545-562.
Final Working Paper Version (February, 2020), Replication materials
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8335 (February, 2018)

The Globalization of Refugee Flows, joint with Quy-Toan Do and Xavier Devictor
Journal of Development Economics 150 (May 2021), 102605 (Special Issue on the Economics of Forced Displacement).
Final Working Paper Version (October, 2020)
NBER Working Paper 28332 | CEPR Discussion Paper 15652 | World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9206 (April, 2020)
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org
Press: The Economist

The Economics and Politics of Revoking NAFTA, joint with Raphael Auer and Barthelemy Bonadio
IMF Economic Review, 68:1 (February 2020), 230-267 (Special Issue: 2018 IMF Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference volume).
Final Working Paper Version (June, 2019), Replication materials
NBER Working Paper 25379 | CEPR Discussion Paper 13393 | RSIE Discussion Paper 666
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org
Press: Financial Times, Financial Post (Canada)

The Geographic Spread of a Large Devaluation, joint with Javier Cravino
American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, 108 (May 2018), 562-566.
Final Working Paper Version (December, 2017)

Trade Policy and Redistribution when Preferences are Non-Homothetic, joint with Quy-Toan Do
Economics Letters, 155 (June 2017), 92-95.
Final Working Paper Version (March, 2017)
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8005 | NBER Working Paper 23237 | CEPR Discussion Paper 11890 | RSIE Discussion Paper 656

Large Firms and International Business Cycle Comovement, joint with Julian di Giovanni and Isabelle Mejean
American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 107:5 (May 2017), 598-602.
Final Working Paper Version (January 2017)

The Growth of Multinational Firms in the Great Recession, joint with Vanessa Alviarez and Javier Cravino
Journal of Monetary Economics, 85 (January 2017), 50-64 (Carnegie-Rochester-NYU Series on Public Policy).
Final Working Paper Version (August, 2016)
CEPR Discussion Paper 11637 | RSIE Discussion Paper 654

External Rebalancing, Structural Adjustment, and Real Exchange Rates in Developing Asia, joint with Jing Zhang
in Benno Ferrarini and David Hummels, eds, Asia and Global Production Networks -- Implications for Trade, Incomes and Economic Vulnerability, Asian Development Bank and Edgar Elgar Publishing, 2014, 215-248.
Final Working Paper Version (September 2013)

Trade Insulation as Social Protection, joint with Quy-Toan Do and Martin Ravallion
in Jean-Paul Chavas, David Hummels, and Brian Wright, eds, The Economics of Food Price Volatility, NBER and University of Chicago Press, 2014, 345-366.
Final Working Paper Version (May 2013, also World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6448)

Comparative Advantage, Complexity, and Volatility, joint with Pravin Krishna
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 94 (October 2013), 314-329 (Special Issue on "Organization of the firm, institutions and international trade").
Final Working Paper Version (September, 2012)
RSIE Discussion Paper 632 | NBER Working Paper 14965 (May, 2009)

The Global Labor Market Impact of Emerging Giants: a Quantitative Assessment, joint with Jing Zhang
IMF Economic Review, 61:3 (August 2013), 479-519 (Special Issue: 2012 IMF Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference volume).
Final Working Paper Version (June, 2013)
RSIE Discussion Paper 637

Comparative Advantage and the Welfare Impact of European Integration, joint with Jing Zhang
Economic Policy, 27:72 (October 2012), 567-602.
Final Working Paper Version (March, 2012)
NBER Working Paper 18061 | RSIE Discussion Paper 626

The Risk Content of Exports: A Portfolio View of International Trade, joint with Julian di Giovanni
NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 8:1 (May 2012), 97-151.
Final Working Paper Version (October, 2008)
RSIE Discussion Paper 581 | NBER Working Paper 16005

The Role of Trade Finance in the U.S. Trade Collapse: a Skeptic's View, joint with Logan Lewis and Linda Tesar
in Jean-Pierre Chauffour and Mariem Malouche, eds, Trade Finance During the Great Trade Collapse, Washington, DC: The World Bank, 2011, 133-147.
Final Working Paper Version (August 2010, also RSIE Discussion Paper 616)

The "Collapse in Quality" Hypothesis, joint with Logan Lewis and Linda Tesar
American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 101:3 (May 2011), 293-297.
Final Working Paper Version (including supplementary online appendix) (March 2011)

The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun, joint with Logan Lewis and Linda Tesar
IMF Economic Review, 58:2 (December 2010), 214-253 (Special Issue: Economic Linkages, Spillovers and the Financial Crisis).
Final Working Paper Version (May, 2010, also NBER Working Paper 16006)
RSIE Discussion Paper 592 (October, 2009)
A non-technical summary: VoxEU.org EBook chapter

Growth and Risk at the Industry Level: the Real Effects of Financial Liberalization, joint with Romain Ranciere and Mathias Thoenig
Journal of Development Economics, 89:2 (July 2009), 210-222 (Symposium Issue on the New Perspectives on Financial Globalization).
Final Working Paper Version Supplementary Online Appendix (May, 2008)
CEPR Discussion Paper 6715 (February, 2008)

Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Protect from Sudden Stops? joint with Paolo Mauro
World Bank Economic Review, 21:3 (September 2007), 389-411 (Growth and Volatility: A Symposium).
Final Working Paper Version (March, 2007)
IMF Working Paper 06/202 (September, 2006)

Financial Liberalization and Consumption Volatility in Developing Countries
IMF Staff Papers, 52:2 (September 2005), 237-259 (Special Issue: 2004 IMF Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference volume).